The economy will need to generate an average of about 78.5 lakh jobs annually until 2030 in the non-farm sector to cater to the rising workforce, the Economic Survey 2023-24 estimates. It further added that to create these many jobs there is a need to create the conditions for “faster growth of productive jobs outside of agriculture”, especially in organised manufacturing and services, even while improving productivity in agriculture.
The Survey noted that India’s current workforce is pegged at nearly 56.5 crore. Of this, nearly 45 per cent are employed in agriculture, 11.4 per cent in manufacturing, 28.9 per cent in services and 13 per cent in construction, per the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data.
Due to structural transformation, it is assumed that the share of agriculture in the workforce will gradually decline from 45.8 per cent in 2023 to one-fourth in 2047. It said that the corresponding workforce leaving agriculture added to the rise in workforce. “Consequently, the Indian economy needs to generate an average of nearly 78.5 lakh jobs annually until 2030 in the non-farm sector to cater to the rising workforce,” it said.
Stating this is a broad estimate of the number of jobs that the economy needs to create, it added not all will require jobs as some will be self-employed and some will be employers. “Technological change, geopolitical churn and climate change combine to make this a formidable challenge. Rising to it requires us —Governments at all levels and the private sector — to strive together,” the Survey added.
Supplement PLIs
The Survey said there is scope to “supplement” existing schemes of Production-Linked Incentive across sectors, MITRA Textile scheme and MUDRA among others. It added that their implementation can be “boosted”.
The Survey also noted that besides the number of employment opportunities, the quality and social security are critical aspects. “The rising employment of flexi workers through staffing companies can be a channel for ensuring social security for informal workers,”it added.It added that the gig workforce is expected to expand to 23.5 million andform 6.7 per cent per cent of the non-agricultural workforce or 4.1 per cent of the total livelihood in India by 2029–30.
The Survey pointed out that the agro-processing sector is a promising sector for rural growth. “India can utilise the range of products on offer by its different agro-climatic zones and productively engage the sizeable rural workforce, comprising women who seek remunerative part-time employment and educated youth who can be technically skilled to handle small to medium scale agro-processing units,” it noted.
It also emphasised that the care economy also holds great importance for a young country like India, which has both gender and demographic dividends to reap.