Global trade in goods is likely to continue to grow steadily through the fourth quarter of 2024 but the outlook is clouded by increasing economic uncertainty including possible shifts in trade policy, per the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer readings released on Monday.
“The latest reading of 102.7 for the barometer index is both above the quarterly trade volume index and greater than the baseline value of 100 for the index, suggesting that trade will continue to grow steadily through the fourth quarter. However, the outlook is clouded by rising economic uncertainty, including possible shifts in trade policy,” a statement issued by the WTO noted.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite indicator for world trade and provides real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
All of the barometer’s component indices remain on or above trend except for the electronic components index (95.4), which has stabilised below trend, the statement pointed out.
“Export orders, usually the most predictive of the barometer’s components, remain very close to the baseline value of 100, suggesting steady trade growth in the near term,” it said.
Indices representing export orders and raw materials indices are both on trend (100.5) while those representing air freight (102.9), automotive products (104.0) and container shipping (105.8) are firmly above trend. The container shipping index showed the biggest improvement over the last three months while the air freight index lost momentum
The report mentioned rising economic uncertainty, including possible shifts in trade policy, clouding the outlook for global trade. It, however, did not mention what would lead to the shifts in trade policy.
According to the WTO’s most recent trade forecast of October 10, trade volume growth for the whole of 2024 is likely to be around 2.7 per cent while growth in 2025 is expected to touch 3 per cent.