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Bitcoin’s narrow price movement over the past week contradicts a much different development in the futures market. According to Axel Adler Jr., an analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, a sharp rise in the long liquidation dominance metric could set the stage for a significant shift in sentiment that may completely wash out bears from the market. Adler shared the data in a recent post on X, accompanied by a chart showing previous points that resemble the current setup.
Long Liquidation Spike Without Price Crash
The dominance of long liquidations has jumped from 0% to +10% over the past seven days, a move that typically shows distress among bullish traders. However, what makes the current development especially noteworthy is the absence of a steep crash in Bitcoin’s price. Instead, in the just concluded week, Bitcoin held mostly within the $103,000 to $106,000 range until a recent drop, despite facing increasing pressure from long-side liquidations.
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Axel Adler Jr. explained that this sustained liquidation of long positions without a full-blown price collapse indicates sustained buyer support. According to data from CryptoQuant, BTC’s long liquidations hit 2,200 BTC, the highest in the past week. Usually, a surge in long liquidations suggests that traders who were anticipating a price rally are being pushed out of their positions under pressure.
The CryptoQuant chart below shows how spikes in long liquidation dominance, especially in the 15% to 20% range, have always preceded bullish reversals. According to the analyst, if this metric rises by another 5–7%, it could cause a high-probability scenario where bearish positions are washed out and flip Bitcoin’s price movements in favor of the bulls.
Large Wallets Accumulate As Retail Exits
Data from Santiment, another on-chain analytics platform, shows an interesting dynamic playing out among Bitcoin holders. Over the past ten days, wallets holding over 10 BTC have increased by 231 addresses, which is a 0.15% rise. Meanwhile, smaller retail wallets containing between 0.001 and 10 BTC have dropped by 37,465 in the same timeframe. This trend highlights a divergence in sentiment between large and retail holders.
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According to Santiment, the shift where whales and sharks accumulate while retail exits is a bullish combination for Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s market value is hovering just below $104,000 during this accumulation phase, and there could be an eventual upward breakout once retail holders begin to reenter.
Despite the underlying on-chain strength, Bitcoin’s spot price has taken a short-term hit in the past 48 hours. During this timeframe, Bitcoin’s price has slipped below support levels between $106,000 and $103,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $102,670, down by 2.6% in the past 24 hours.
The decline can be largely attributed to recent U.S. strikes on Iran. The U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (June 21-22) caused immediate risk aversion across markets. Bitcoin fell 3.2% after announcements of the strikes, much like its 6% drop during similar 2020 Iran tensions.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com